Combine Thoughts, pt. 3: Some Other Guys
Combine Thoughts, pt. 3: Some Other Guys
Mar 12, 2024

Free agency has started and I’m here to continue talking about the Combine (not sorry). We covered Bucky Irving at length and five of the other most prominent running backs in this class last week, and today I want to discuss the weigh-ins, testing results, and overall Combine implications for a few of the less-heralded runners in the 2024 crop.

Let’s jump right into it with Kimani Vidal, who was boring enough to me prior to last weekend that he ended up in my Guys For Whom Statistical Impact Strikes Me as Unlikely tier in my pre-Combine rankings article. His athletic testing numbers were not boring, however, as he ran 4.46 in the forty and produced 78th-percentile marks in both the jumps and agility drills. In my database of since-2007 draftees and a smattering of undrafted and historical prospects, those numbers – as well as Vidal’s measurements of 5’7 ⅞ and 213 pounds – produces a list of closest physical comps that goes Julius Jones, Jeremy McNichols, Bijan Robinson, Evan Hull, Lamar Miller, D’Andre Swift, Tashard Choice, and Kenneth Dixon. That’s one of the sexiest groups of comps I can imagine (even the busts are my favorite busts!) for a guy who I was fairly uninterested in until he tested, and while I generally don’t want to change my tune much on such a basis, I’m making an exception here.

To be clear, my reservations about Vidal’s failure to truly separate himself from an efficiency standpoint from the collective other backs at Troy still exist, as his career-best marks in Box-Adjusted Efficiency Rating and Relative Success Rate were the 51st- and 56th-percentile numbers he posted as a senior. The Trojans had some good squads the last couple years, but the thresholds I typically want running backs to hit for their career numbers in those metrics are 120% and 2.5%, which Vidal failed to reach in his best season at a Group of Five program and relative to a mediocre group of backfield teammates. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

Still, there are good things to attach your hopes to in Vidal’s profile, and his athleticism just accentuates them. He was productive all four years of his career, he posted nice marks in missed tackles forced per attempt and Chunk Rate+ (so maybe I should have expected good athletic testing results), and he caught 92 passes and graded out well as a pass-protector (according to Pro Football Focus, he’s the second-best in the class in this area). Crazier things have happened than a full-skillset running back with decent-but-not-great efficiency numbers at a mid-major program becoming a jack-of-all-trades role player in the NFL (see: Singletary, Devin). It’s still challenging to explain why Vidal wasn’t more successful in the Sun Belt Conference given how athletic he apparently is, but consistent productivity and athleticism are together enough for me to buy-in on a player who probably won’t cost much to buy-in on. Let “shit happens” be the god of the gaps and giddy up.

Any series of Combine articles is obligated to cover the guy-who-didn’t-do-much-in-college-but-is-suddenly-interesting-because-he-destroyed-athletic-testing, so let’s get our discussion of Isaac Guerendo out of the way. His list of closest athletic comps is basically just a who’s-who of the highest RAS scores of all time, with Justice Hill, Saquon Barkley, Reggie Bush, Jerick McKinnon, Corey Grant rounding out the top-five. If we include height and weight in our calculus, the 6-foot and 221-pound Guerendo comps most closely to the following historical prospects:

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Breakaway Conversion Rate (or BCR):
Quantifies performance in the open field by measuring how often a player turns his chunk runs of at least 10 yards into breakaway gains of at least 20 yards.