To me, Audric Estime is one of the more interesting prospects in the 2024 running back class. He’s been a big boy since the beginning, as he weighed 215 pounds and drew Jordan Howard comparisons as a four-star high school recruit before being listed at a stout 227 during his final season at Notre Dame. In the years since his recruitment, Estime established himself as one of the best running backs at college football, totaling over 1000 yards from scrimmage in back-to-back seasons on top-20 Notre Dame squads. Production numbers (more specifically, his market share stats and the Irish’s S&P+ ratings) from his 2023 campaign comp closely to those posted by Ronald Jones, Derrius Guice, Kyren Williams, and Kerryon Johnson during their respective junior years, while names like Alexander Mattison and D’Onta Foreman also show up in the list of historical prospects whose career numbers are most similar to Estime’s.

Still, I sense some level of skepticism surrounding Estime’s NFL potential. He’s a workhorse-sized back who doesn’t catch a ton of passes and doesn’t seem to have elite athleticism, and players in that archetype have provided dynasty enthusiasts with more than their fair share of disappointment over the years (I’m still working through the Kevin Harris experience with my therapist). Indeed, it’s often difficult for such players – the two-down backs whose skill-sets aren’t quite on the level of a Jonathan Taylor or a Nick Chubb – to separate themselves on a professional depth chart because they almost necessarily have to do so by virtue of simply being the best ball-carrier on their team. The margins for that at the NFL level are razor thin, as pretty much all pro running backs can provide at least satisfactory results on the ground, and many of them can supplement mere competence in that category with value provided in the areas of running back play that more readily differentiate players at the position: pass protection and receiving work.

Basically, if Estime is going to be productive in the league and useful for your fantasy teams, he’s going to need to give NFL teams a reason to put him on the field. There’s still tape to watch and receiving data to crunch, but I want to start my evaluation by mining for such a reason in the advanced efficiency profile that Estime put together as a rusher, taking the first step toward determining whether he’s more Jordan Howard or Kevin Harris: