Jahmyr Gibbs: Running for Precedent
Jahmyr Gibbs: Running for Precedent
Apr 18, 2023

As the current 1.06 in rookie drafts and RB8 in dynasty overall (according to KeepTradeCut), the 199-pound Jahmyr Gibbs is a fairly unique proposition as an undersized running back who the dynasty community expects to be a high-end fantasy asset. I think it’s reasonable to ponder whether that uniqueness is a good or bad thing.

In recent years, the approximate threshold for RB2-level production in PPR is 12 points per game, and since the turn of the century, there have been 28 running backs to eclipse such a threshold at lighter than 205 pounds (according to Pro Football Reference):

  • Jahvid Best
  • Ahmad Bradshaw
  • Jamaal Charles
  • Tarik Cohen
  • Warrick Dunn
  • Austin Ekeler
  • Andre Ellington
  • Kevin Faulk
  • Justin Forsett
  • Charlie Garner
  • Myles Gaskin
  • Ronnie Hillman
  • Nyheim Hines
  • Chris Johnson
  • Dion Lewis
  • Phillip Lindsay
  • Elijah Mitchell
  • Bilal Powell
  • Ray Rice
  • Theo Riddick
  • Devin Singletary
  • Steve Slaton
  • CJ Spiller
  • Darren Sproles
  • Chris Thompson
  • Brian Westbrook
  • Cadillac Williams
  • Danny Woodhead

Those 28 backs combined for a total of 65 RB2-or-better-level seasons in the post-2000 era, meaning we get an average of 2.8 sub-205-pound runners to produce like fantasy starters in a given year. The rarity of players in this archetype is evident, but even within it, I would argue that Gibbs doesn’t really look much like any of his successful predecessors (let alone like the 214-pound Alvin Kamara, the 212-pound D’Andre Swift, or the 208-pound Aaron Jones that he often gets compared to).

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Breakaway Conversion Rate (or BCR):
Quantifies performance in the open field by measuring how often a player turns his chunk runs of at least 10 yards into breakaway gains of at least 20 yards.